Sunday, January 11, 2009

UNC-Wake preview

















Big game tonight as the #3 North Carolina Tar Heels face off against the #4 Wake Forest Demon Deacons. There are some great matchups all over the court. One of the big ones that I am excited about is the matchup between point guards Ty Lawson and Jeff Teague. Lawson is probably the fastest point guard with the ball in the nation and if he can get out in the open court, UNC is so much more deadly than if they are forced to play a half-court game. Jeff Teague is bigger than Lawson and is more of a natural scorer but I don't know if either of the point guards will be able to guard each other. In the frontcourt, both teams are pretty easily matched with Wake having the advantage at the 3 spot with Al-Farouq Aminu, a former UNC target. Aminu is taller than the man who will probably guard him, Danny Green, and will probably try to take him closer to the basket in order to take advantage of his height. Another matchup to watch will be the pairing of Tyler Hansbrough and James Johnson, if he guards Hansbrough. Personally, I would put Chas McFarland on Hansbrough since Hansbrough has appeared to struggle more against taller stronger players than against players his own size. I think that Wake can stay with the Tar Heels if they can limit the fast break opportunities that UNC will have by taking care of the ball and getting back quickly after missed shots. Another factor in this game is how close the refs will call fouls inside. If they let the players play down low, Hansbrough might not be able to take advantage of his free throw shooting prowess and ability to get to the line early and often. It will be an exciting game but I think that Wake will turn the ball over too much and play into the hands of the vaunted UNC fast break. UNC by 7.

Tuesday, January 6, 2009

The ACC Continued...

Since North Carolina was discussed at length yesterday and the entire news media has covered almost every aspect of the team, the two other powerhouses in the conference have managed to stay out of the lion's share of the limelight. The Duke Blue Devils returned everyone from their 2007-08 team except for team captain DeMarcus Nelson, who had been recently playing for the Golden State Warriors until he was cut this week. Kyle Singler, their do-everything forward, has been outstanding in the Blue Devils' first 13 games, leading them in points, rebounds, assists and steals. After fading at the end of last year, he put on some noticeable bulk and has appeared to be much more able to take the wear and tear of playing in the post. The second biggest story of this Blue Devil team has been the emergence of Nolan Smith as point guard, supplanting three year starter Greg Paulus. Paulus had his best year points wise last year but it became clear as the season progressed that he could not guard opposing point guards as well as the quicker and more athletic Smith. Smith has also shown more confidence in getting in the lane and either finishing or dishing to one of the many shooters that Duke always has spotting up outside of the arc.

Jon Scheyer is one of those shooters and has had another solid and consistent start to the 2008-09 season. Although he struggled to find his perimeter shot at the beginning of the season, he broke out in Duke's blowout win over Xavier and has provided the Blue Devils with consistent play throughout the season. The exact opposite of Scheyer is his backcourt mate, Gerald Henderson. Henderson is an athletic freak who seemingly can get his shot whenever he wants, yet he has failed to live up to his lofty potential by constantly following good outings with games when he disappears altogether. Another surprise for Duke has been the consistent play of Brian Zoubek. Zoubek is injury free and has given them some productive minutes from the 5 spot. Duke has played the best defense in the country so far this year, always a staple of a Coach K team. However, as in recent years, they seem to stray too far from the hoop when the going gets tough and instead of working the ball around looking for an open mid range jumper or layup, they fall in love with the three ball. When the threes are not falling, Duke gets in trouble- as it did in its one loss at Michigan. Duke certainly possesses the talent to make a deep run in the tournament and when they are playing at their best, they can certainly beat anyone in the country. However, when they are not playing well, they are vulnerable to almost any team in the country as well. It will be interesting to see how Singler can hold up down the stretch, if the Blue Devils can avoid injuries and cold shooting nights, and if Gerald Henderson will begin to produce up to his potential.

While both North Carolina and Duke return a great amount of experience, Wake Forest fields one of the youngest and least experience teams. They start two sophomores and a freshman and have not experienced the type of success in recent years that Duke or Carolina have. However, they make up for the lack of tourney experience with a wealth of talent, starting at the point guard position. Sophomore Jeff Teague has successfully taken the point guard position from junior Ishmael Smith as he recovered from injury and Teague has run with it. He is the leading scorer on the Wake Forest team and has used his incredible quickness and athleticism to score at will for the Demon Deacons. He recently scored 30 points in Wake's big win at BYU, snapping the longest home winning streak in the nation. Teague is joined by fellow sophomore James Johnson, a versatile forward who can rebound with the best of them and still step out and shoot. Despite these two star sophomores, the player to watch on this Wake team is their talented freshman Al-Farouq Aminu, an extremely rangy and athletic forward who was one of the top recruits entering the season. He is a matchup nightmare for opposing forwards due to his surprising contrast of speed, athleticism, skill and size. He can play the small forward position or power forward and creates mismatches at both. Rounding out the starting five are the juniors L.D. Williams and Chas McFarland. Williams is an amazing leaper who can defend and finish with emphatic slams on the fast break while McFarland gives them some muscle and toughness on the inside.

This Wake team is the biggest wild card of the college basketball season. Talent wise, they are as good as any team in basketball but they lack the necessary experience that is normally a quality of all championship contenders. They are undefeated but have not been tested as much as Duke or Carolina other than their big win at BYU. Athletically they are frighteningly fast and can jump out of the gym. In this respect, they match up with teams like Carolina and Duke favorably and might have the edge in athleticism. Although they do not have a lights out shooter from three, Teague is quite a good shooter from beyond the arc and Johnson, Williams and Harvey Hale off the bench can get hot from three. The big question mark thus far for this Wake team and many Wake teams in the past is if they can defend. They certainly can put up some big point numbers but when it comes down to the stretch run in the ACC, they are going to need to stop some teams from scoring. Their length and athleticism should lend itself to a good defensive team but so far they have left something to be desired. They certainly will be up with their two neighbors from the Triangle region for most of the season and if they can stay consistent, they will give them a good run for the ACC crown.

Monday, January 5, 2009

New NCAA Rankings Released


After a weekend that contained the biggest upset thus far in the college basketball season when the #1 ranked North Carolina Tar Heels fell to unranked Boston College, the rankings shuffled up a bit. Overshadowed by the North Carolina loss was the defeat of the #2 ranked UConn Huskies to Georgetown. Therefore, the #3 ranked Pittsburgh Panthers jumped to #1 for the first time in their history. They were followed by the Duke Blue Devils, North Carolina and Wake Forest. Three of the top four teams were not only members of the Atlantic Coast Conference but were also schools located in the Triangle region of North Carolina. This cannot be considered to be too big of a surprise since all three teams feature a nucleus of experience surrounded by talented newcomers. In a season in which the press has deemed the Big East to be the greatest conference by a large margin, it brings up the debate of whether it is better to have great conference depth (10 Big East teams are currently ranked in the ESPN/USA Today Top 25) or a few great teams such as in the ACC.
The three teams that make up the top of the ACC right now are all unique in their own way. North Carolina features a wealth of experience from its last two lengthy NCAA tournament runs, led by reigning National Player of the Year Tyler Hansbrough. Hansbrough's legendary work ethic and awkward looking shots that seem to always bounce around a few times on the rim before dropping through have carried North Carolina for the last three years but he has help. Ty Lawson is really the catalyst for this North Carolina team, a team that thrives in the open court under their fast break guru, Roy Williams. The fastest player from end to end in college basketball by far can get his shot whenever he wants in the open court and is deceptively strong as he motors to the basket. Along with Lawson is the duo of Danny Green and Wayne Ellington, who both flirted with the NBA Draft before returning to school. Deon Thompson and Ed Davis make up the rest of the frontcourt and score mainly on garbage buckets off offensive rebounds. This team looked invincible for its first 13 games until running into a driven Boston College team that took care of the ball to limit fast break opportunities for North Carolina and force them into a half court game. The one aspect of Carolina that has not been superb this year has been their half court offense, and frankly it hasn't had to be. They run the court so well that they rarely have to settle into a half court game but when they do, their weakness shooting the ball from the perimeter rears its ugly head. Ellington, Green, Will Graves and Bobby Frasor are all capable three point shooters but they are all streaky and while they could make 3 or 4 in a row, they can also go very cold. It ends up putting a lot of pressure on Tyler Hansbrough and he can usually come through with flying colors. However, when the calls are not going his way and he is defended by a tall physical defender, he can get into trouble. It takes a lot to happen to beat this UNC team but there are teams that can match up very well with them and two of them are in the ACC. Tomorrow Duke and Wake Forest will be discussed in length...